All predictions wrong, or your money back (exchange rates)


The headline is a quote from one of my favorite sports columns (the only one that I really read), TMQ.

As I am porting my blog and site to its more modern home on, I’ve had the chance to go over a lot of ancient posts and reflect upon predictions that I and others have made over the past seven years.

Until now, almost all bank experts have been wrong, and I have been right! Here is one example:

According to Shlomo Maoz, an expert, in 2007-2008 we should have seen the USD-Israeli Shekel exchange rate bottom out at 3.9, later rebounding to 4.7. You can read the original @Globes. What really happened?

Here is a chart detailing the monthly averages of the exchange rate for that same period:

dollar exchange rates

Let’s compare this to some of my predictions.

I’ve been constantly predicting that regulation will have no effect on prices, only make it harder for young families to purchase homes. Three years ago I wrote at the beginning of the regulatory madness that it will all backfire. Money quote:

As demand continues to be strong, we don’t expect the new mortgage regulations to have a lasting impact

A year later I wrote:

This isn’t going to cause real estate prices to go down, it will cause the grey-market for loans to flourish as people take out loans at two to three times the mortgage rate to make up for the gap between their down payment and what the bank will give them.

My job isn’t predictions, but getting my clients the best mortgages. Many times the best way to do this is to listen to the experts’ advice and then trying the opposite route.

Since the experts and I made our predictions, we have seen me right on target. If  you want to save serious money on your mortgage, you need to identify economic trends and plan accordingly.

As I update my site over the next few weeks, I hope to find more great pieces of wisdom from the past.